The Wiz Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 First , nice win by the Bills over ALAM....good enough to move us up to C+....For post game analysis see ALAM by 8 thread Did that last game feel good...let's do it again. UTM is a D- team. This should be a cupcake game. However if we don't pay attention they have a couple of weapons to beat us. Here is what we need to do to win...... Slasflines......UTM......39% / 29% ......................SLU.......47% / 37 / 70 TOs .............13 or less ...this number has to come down from the 18 ave over the last few games...protect the ball Howard...their dominant player...stop him ...stop UTM....10 pts ..5 reb Taylor...he is their shooter....hold him to under 50 % Bottomline...This will be our last easy game....use this as a tune up for the coming weeks....it is uphill from here. Avoid mistakes and win easy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3star_recruit Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 First , nice win by the Bills over ALAM....good enough to move us up to C+....For post game analysis see ALAM by 8 thread Did that last game feel good...let's do it again. UTM is a D- team. This should be a cupcake game. However if we don't pay attention they have a couple of weapons to beat us. Here is what we need to do to win...... Slasflines......UTM......39% / 29% ......................SLU.......47% / 37 / 70 TOs .............13 or less ...this number has to come down from the 18 ave over the last few games...protect the ball Howard...their dominant player...stop him ...stop UTM....10 pts ..5 reb Taylor...he is their shooter....hold him to under 50 % Bottomline...This will be our last easy game....use this as a tune up for the coming weeks....it is uphill from here. Avoid mistakes and win easy I think we established ourselves a C+ team three games ago. It was clear we were struggling with the motion offense and that it wasn't going to be a short fix. Inexplicably, we had our best defensive showing in two years against a team averaging nearly 90 ppg. A week later we flat on our faces a week later against Morehead State. I think Morehead State is better than us (their defense is legit) but not that much better. But that's what developing teams do. If you go by our game by game performance, our grade will probably change every week. If you limit your grades to five game stretches, I think you'll find we're a C+ team. Which would still be a significant improvement over last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 That is correct 3 star, the bigger the average size the less fluctuation will be observed in the results. However some assumptions are made in a formulation like this which may or may not be correct. In order for such an ordered system to work, we have to assume that all teams involved are reasonably well integrated and that all teams are improving with play. If this is a stable system the improvements by all teams will basically cancel one another and positions will become rather stationary. This, in fact, is what generally happens in the course of a season. However there are events that may disrupt this type of conceptualized model, injuries are a major source of deviations from expected results. Other sources of deviations may be bad chemistry in a team, which may develop slowly, and on the opposite side the discovery by a team's players that they can play together well and that they enjoy it. This is where the number of assists per game become an interesting measure of development in a team. All in all, I think it is too early to cast SLU solidly as a C+ team for the rest of the season. We will see what happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 13, 2015 Author Share Posted December 13, 2015 I think we established ourselves a C+ team three games ago. It was clear we were struggling with the motion offense and that it wasn't going to be a short fix. Inexplicably, we had our best defensive showing in two years against a team averaging nearly 90 ppg. A week later we flat on our faces a week later against Morehead State. I think Morehead State is better than us (their defense is legit) but not that much better. But that's what developing teams do. If you go by our game by game performance, our grade will probably change every week. If you limit your grades to five game stretches, I think you'll find we're a C+ team. Which would still be a significant improvement over last year. The grades are based on the whole season but I do have a trending factor which figures into the GPA...so in fact WSU is trending up as well as Morehead St. I have MH St on the cusp of B+ / B. They only have played 6 D1 games,, so the next game I will decide which category to place them. With WSU also on the A- / B+ cusp ...this shows that we went through a difficult stretch. I think you are correct in that we were C+ 3 or 4 games ago. But in retrospect, the Lville , MH WSU trio may grade out at A+ B+ A-...tough for a team tteam early on that is still trying to find itself.. As the season progresses, it becomes more difficult to move your grade. At this point , the range is generally 2 notches....so we could finish anywhere.from C- to B. Btw if you think that trio of games was rough better find your seat belt for an upcoming bump. Starting with K St and into the 1st 3 conf games...all 4 games will be A- teams. That's why these next few games will be important ...to prepare for the upcoming challenge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Bills by 8.5 per Vegas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 About 13 according to Sagarin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 About 8 per TeamRankings Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BACKHANDtheRICAN Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 First , nice win by the Bills over ALAM....good enough to move us up to C+....For post game analysis see ALAM by 8 thread Did that last game feel good...let's do it again. UTM is a D- team. This should be a cupcake game. However if we don't pay attention they have a couple of weapons to beat us. Here is what we need to do to win...... Slasflines......UTM......39% / 29% ......................SLU.......47% / 37 / 70 TOs .............13 or less ...this number has to come down from the 18 ave over the last few games...protect the ball Howard...their dominant player...stop him ...stop UTM....10 pts ..5 reb Taylor...he is their shooter....hold him to under 50 % Bottomline...This will be our last easy game....use this as a tune up for the coming weeks....it is uphill from here. Avoid mistakes and win easy Wiz-If we lose this game will you finally agree with backhand that we are a terrible team and stop this "C" grade nonsense? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMM28 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Wiz what's the line of SLU WBB v. SLU MBB? Women's -3? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JettFlight5 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Wiz what's the line of SLU WBB v. SLU MBB? Women's -3? That's the halftime line. Final is WBB by 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 First , nice win by the Bills over ALAM....good enough to move us up to C+....For post game analysis see ALAM by 8 thread Did that last game feel good...let's do it again. UTM is a D- team. This should be a cupcake game. However if we don't pay attention they have a couple of weapons to beat us. Here is what we need to do to win...... Slasflines......UTM......39% / 29% ......................SLU.......47% / 37 / 70 TOs .............13 or less ...this number has to come down from the 18 ave over the last few games...protect the ball Howard...their dominant player...stop him ...stop UTM....10 pts ..5 reb Taylor...he is their shooter....hold him to under 50 % Bottomline...This will be our last easy game....use this as a tune up for the coming weeks....it is uphill from here. Avoid mistakes and win easy Wow...tough crowd...and quick too...some of you started posting before I got out of my Fetz seat. I will do 2 post game reviews.... a short one ...for the weak stomachs and a longer one for the few that still care. Short analysis...2 bombs ...no change that to 1 bomb ( way beyond the arc ) and 1 miracle shot beyond half court all within the last 2 seconds... how does that happen at all, much less in 2 seconds...total 6 pts....game margin 6 pts...Analysis done ...Weak stomachs can now go back to the main page. Longer analysis....What are you still doing here? ...I feel like Ferris Bueller..."You're still here?....It's over. Go home. Go " Well since you are still here , here is what happened.... First a question ...Did UTM have a good game or did we have a bad game. Answer....Both...Let's look at the numbers... UTM slashline...should have been 39/ 29...actual....48/ 42 ...for a total of 5 extra baskets of which 3 were 3 ptrs ...9+4 = 13 pts extra....I wanted Taylor under 50%...he shot 50% and of course Howard didn't play. SLU slashline... Should have been 47/ 37 / 70....actual 38 /25/ 88....we were missing 5 shots, 4 of which were 3's...12 + 2 =14 pts Grand total...27pts -6 pts (margin of victory) = 21 pts... the amount we should have won by if both teams played normal games ,,,count the extra 7 pts over spread as Howard not playing for them or our exceptional FTs. 2 bright spots ... we shot an excellent 88% FTs...better still in that we took a lot of shots (25) . Also only 12 TOs (9 in the 1st half)...down from the 19 ave over the last few games. Those 2 stats will be important going forward if we can keep them going. Bottomline....Damaging game... I had no problem losing to MH St, they are a good team...UTM, bad team, bad loss.. We had a nice comeback in the 2nd half but there is no excuse to lose to a D- team. We need to play 2 halves of basketball (especially the 1st half) I noticed the team came to life in the 2nd half during the comeback. They need to come out with some fire in the 1st half in future games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnbj14 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Wiz, does this game shift our overall grade much based on your system? Or is it still a wait and see until the next lock in date? While tonight was terrible, it seemed like statistically everything that could go wrong did go wrong. (Aside from FTs ifof course) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenblue Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Wiz..love your passion but you can look at numbers anyway you want..we are not and have never been a C team this year.. Your quote " our last easy game" and they were playing without their best player. Yes they had a miracle at the end of the half but to say that is why we lost is crazy..we flat out stink and the coach is at a loss on what to do about it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 Wiz, does this game shift our overall grade much based on your system? Or is it still a wait and see until the next lock in date? While tonight was terrible, it seemed like statistically everything that could go wrong did go wrong. (Aside from FTs ifof course) I redo the numbers and check the grade after every Bills game. This game was pretty damaging not only because UTM was a D- team but they whupped us by 20 pts....14 pt spread + 6 pt margin of victory. I have to wait until all the numbers are in before I can recalculate...waiting on some West Coast games... I will have the new numbers in the morning.... I am guessing we will drop to a C from C+ ...which is a lot for 1 game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Crews' whole game plan was probably centered around them having Howard. Once they didn't he was clueless on what to do. I mean TN Martin is pitiful and we should have been able to beat them without a plan but I just want to start on the usual excuses Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Crews' whole game plan was probably centered around them having Howard. Once they didn't he was clueless on what to do. I mean TN Martin is pitiful and we should have been able to beat them without a plan but I just want to start on the usual excuses we need a specific plan other than play hard and smart to beat a tn-martin? 1983 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheeseman Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 we need a specific plan other than play hard and smart to beat a tn-martin? 1983 How about recruit hard, coach hard to beat a TN Martin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 OK guys let's look at the numbers for the game: SLU / UTM: Total rebounds 34 /35 (Offensive 9 / 6, Defensive 25 / 29), Assists 18 /12, Blocks 2 / 2, Steals 4 / 7. No major meltdown in any of these categories. Fouls 23 / 18, Trunovers 12 / 15, FTM - FTA (percentage) 22-25 (.880) / 24-32 (.750). Again no major meltdown here. Scoring: FGM - FGA (percentage) 23 -60 (.383) / 25 - 52 (.481), 3FG - FGA (percentage) 8 - 32 (.250) / 8 - 19 (.421). This was the problem. Overall, we had trouble with scoring. We attempted 60 2 point FGs and made only 23. Notably there was the layup by Crawford that did not go in after rolling on the rim. We attempted more 2 point goals than they did and made less than they did, very poor accuracy, this accounted for 4 of the victory points for UTM. We attempted many more 3 pointers than they did and made exactly the same number, no difference here, except to note the poor accuracy of the 3 point shooting. We made many more fouls than they did, they were less accurate in FT shooting than we were but made an extra 2 points in FT throwing over our score. Their additional 4 points in 2 point FGs and the additional 2 points in FTs made the winning margin for UT. I wanted to make a note about a few players. Reggie played 17 minutes, made 3 pts and 3 rebounds, had 2 fouls and 1 turnover. Neufled played 8 min made 1 steal, had 1 foul. Yacoubou played 21 min, made 8 pts, 1 assist, 3 rebounds, had 4 fouls and 2 turnovers. Gillmann played 13 minutes, made 2 points, 3 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1 block had 3 fouls and 1 turnover. As we all know, we have a problem with bigs. None of these played very well. Jolly played only 1 minute and did nothing. Given the way other bigs are playing, it might be appropriate to give him more minutes to see if he can do any better than the others. I also wanted to compare the numbers of Bartley and Bishop. Let's remember that Bishop is a freshman with very few minutes of D1 play and Bartley played a fair amount last season. Bartley played 19 minutes, made 6 points, 4 assists, and 1 rebound, had 3 fouls. Bishop played 11 minutes with a face mask, made 5 points and 3 assists, no fouls or turnovers. Yarborough, Reynolds, Roby, and Crawford played well. My conclusions are these, when Yacoubou is not playing particularly well we have problems. Our bigs are, to be kind, still developing. I would like to see Bishop getting more minutes. Yes, we lost. We lost because our shooting accuracy was very poor. Just a few more scores might have made the difference. One more point to be made, that long bomb they threw at the mid time and went in accounted for half their margin of victory. This was something that could not be considered more than a lucky shot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willie Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Crawford might have played well. He didn't shoot well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Pelican Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Old guy said: As we all know, we have a problem with bigs. None of these played very well. Jolly played only 1 minute and did nothing. Given the way other bigs are playing, it might be appropriate to give him more minutes to see if he can do any better than the others. I think we all know the answer to that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsmith19 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Crawford might have played well. He didn't shoot well. Career high in turnovers and just shy of a career high in missed shots. I actually think if you are looking for excuses you can say it was just an uncharacteristically poor game for Crawford. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Crawford shot poorly last night, had 3 Turnovers and 3 rebounds. Not one of his good nights but he did make 12 pts, Yacoubou only made 8 points, 3 rebounds 1 assist and 2 turnovers. Not one of his good nights either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willie Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 I do not like bringing Ash off the bench. He came into the game and had a rough 3 minutes. Got benched and was useless for the first half. I thought our coaches regressed badly in their substitution patterns last night. Way to much if you make a mistake or miss 2 shots you are yanked. We had been doing better with this but last night they regressed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 I do not like bringing Ash off the bench. He came into the game and had a rough 3 minutes. Got benched and was useless for the first half. I thought our coaches regressed badly in their substitution patterns last night. Way to much if you make a mistake or miss 2 shots you are yanked. We had been doing better with this but last night they regressed. I agree with another and think it is time to go small, Golden State Warriors small, and play the best players: Yarbrough at the 5 (yes the 5) at only 6'6", Yacoubou at the 4 at only 6'4", Crawford at the 3 at 6'4", Roby at the 2 at 6'4", and Reynolds at the point at 6'2", with Bartley at 6'4" as the 6th man. Why not get the best players on the floor at the same time? Rebounding? The bigs aren't rebounding anyway, don't score much, don't defend. Sure we'll get killed on the boards, but we're already getting killed on the boards. I realize that offense first is a foreign concept to St. Louis U. But this approach just won an NBA Championship, and has started this season at 25-1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NextYearBill Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 I agree with another and think it is time to go small, Golden State Warriors small, and play the best players: Yarbrough at the 5 (yes the 5) at only 6'6", Yacoubou at the 4 at only 6'4", Crawford at the 3 at 6'4", Roby at the 2 at 6'4", and Reynolds at the point at 6'2", with Bartley at 6'4" as the 6th man. Why not get the best players on the floor at the same time? Rebounding? The bigs aren't rebounding anyway, don't score much, don't defend. Sure we'll get killed on the boards, but we're already getting killed on the boards. I realize that offense first is a foreign concept to St. Louis U. But this approach just won an NBA Championship, and has started this season at 25-1. I GOT BLASTED by our own fans for making this exact suggestion. +1000000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.