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The Dreaded Top 144


Taj79

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It's baaaa-aaaack!!! For the record i want to point out three things:

#1) it was "Ace" in post 264 of that second Top 144 thread, out of 275 in that thread,. who said "I think some folks will want to revisit this thread in March." Who am I to disappoint? The thread was started on July 11, 2014.

#2) the thread was never about who was right and who was wrong, but rather to stimulate disucssion. In going back over it, however, there are some really fun statements to look at and really chuckle over. And that is what this is about -- the chuckles. Gawd knows we need some laughs after that season-long atrocity and until "Can't Wait Part Deaux" (forever now known as "Deaux") rekindles itself in October 2015 (August if the road trip comes true). Hey, if you can't laugh at yourself, you need to lighten up some for sure. And,

#3) I'm signing off for the spring/summer. My real MBM friends know where to find me as I take this board as my daily morning coffee and evening Ambien. But this is the last Taj79 novella (disappointing f05, I know) and it's not really what I have to say, but what you all said back in Top 144. Besides, a lot of nonsense and trolling (well put nark) are going to happen and until Deaux gets going, nothing will be answered anyway. The only thing I am sure of is Ben Howland won't be coaching the Bills next year just as I am sure the first spring signing will have video replays galore and be met with sighs of relief as the answer to who we have cured that roster missing ingredient with. Beware of the Horaces/Obis of April much like the Ides of March.

The thread puh-lease!

Cheeseman said he would not put us on this list given all the question marks. He was quite consistent through the thread. I am mad at myself from waivering in the original thought -- that we would NOT make Welser's Top 144 -- but I waivered because Fordham AND Duquesne were on this and they could not be better than us. Could they? Could they? Beuhler? Buehler?

cgelmacher said we'd be inside the Top 100 because the program will gain respect due to the "momentum the staff and administration has created" these last three years. Yup. majerus mojo agreed with "Crews has garnered a lot fo respect and his COY award was huge." That and a dollar gets you any size coffee at Mickey D's. kshoe, my bud and mutual admiration dude, has comments both good and bad. Many were indeed thought provoking (see main reason for thread) but he did say "(not being ) in the Top 144 ... just how bad that implies .. not expecting much but below 144 would be off the charts disappointing." Dwayne's World had us ranked "70 - 80;" brianstl came in at "85 - 95." MB73 countered with "70 - 90." billslasttermdropout bull's eyed "#66" as "realistically optimistic a #". Today's KenPom has us at #298; Sagarin has us at #259.

Other local teams eventually got mentioned like our friends up the river in Columbia, who, when appearing at #104, had kshoe opine, "no way they are 104. They finished the year 49 in the rpi and while they lose a lot .. I would have put them in around 50 again." MB73 countered that when the list hit #86, "worst case for us is now 85" and "at least we didn't get burned like Mizzou." Uh, yeah we did. Even worse. I think SIUC came in in the 60's and folks didn't care much about that except where playing them (and beating them) would not hurt our RPI.

A parallel thread ran on the roster. Reviews were coming in from insiders like DocB which caused mojo to write "They should just steal DoctorB's post from the "Roster" thread and slot us somewhere near the backend of the top 50. I'm still sipping the kool-aid from that one." What did the insider report? Insider DocB said "it is hard not to be impressed by the physicality and the athletic abilities, as a group. They look big and physical. I've been around the team for 15 years and this group is as physically imposing, and just plain big and strong, as any team we've had since I got here--as a complete team. Reggie and Ash look very intimidating, for one thing. They are both very tough and I expect them to get big minutes and make very big contributions, right away. Believe me when I tell you--they will do just fine in the A10. So will Crawford and Lancona--they can score in our league, in bunches. All those 4 guys have improved and matured dramatically; they may not yet be on the skill level of our graduating seniors but they are ready to rock and roll, and they will all chip in points, and get lots of minutes. Add 2 seniors and McB and you already have an excellent rotation of 7. Jolly will be a big surprise for many on here, because he is relentless and surprisingly athletic, for his size. Roby is physically probably the most ready today, he reminds me a bit of Ash. But Jolly is a darkhorse. We'll be pretty darned good this year, unless I am really missing something. I know the league is tough but I hope everyone is encouraged to hear -- we'll be tough too, and we can play with these other teams. You better believe we'll defend the Fetz; how will we do on the road?? What may be the biggest surprise-- and a credit to the program--I think we can be really good without really depending much on the freshmen--although they will get their minutes, and points I'm sure. Honestly, it may be the kool-aid--but how about some upside optimism for the Bills? can we win 20-22 and figure out a way into the Dance, 4 years in a row? Cause if we do, it could become 8 or 10 years in a row!!!" Credibility seems a little suspec ,eh?. Evaluation skills need a slight smidge of work. This rivals 'Kyle Cassity has NBA potential,' right? What? No castration over these comments?

But DocB was not alone. Bauman came in with "We have 3 very talented SO coming back along with a really good transfer and some outstanding FR. If you don't think we are better than some of the teams already ranked from 86-100, then you don't have much confidence in our recent recruiting. My assessment of AY is purely based on his high school record as an outstanding player along with a few Board comments from some of you who have seen him in practice or pick-up games. Primarily I am relying on his reputation.

" No comment. Hey, she's got a great personality.

bauman again "Regarding the 6 FR, I just like what I've seen on video regarding their skill sets, along with their reputations and honors from high school. One or more of them might turn out to be a Ruben Cotto, but I think this coaching staff had more time to scout and evaluate the incoming 6 than coach RM did when he was trying to quickly rebuild a broken roster." Don't believe all you read or hear,I guess. And my favorite now in hindsight was this qwuestion, again from bauman: "RELAX, everyone. We are without a doubt one of the best 11 teams in the A10 (now one of the best 8). Do any of you really think we are worse than Fordham, Saint Joe and Lasalle?"

Guys then began to attack the author, as cheseman accurtately predicted. NH asked if we were "aware that it is ONE GUY doing these rankings. And that one guy doesn't have some inside info about these teams. The top 144 previews are pretty terrible previews in my opinion and his insight into where we will be ranked doesn't mean squat." DocB came back with "if so, then this board has now made 119 breathless posts in response to a prognosticator who is, in fact, a complete idiot." Fact? Says you? Clock Tower reasoned it some with "It is pretty clear that we will make the cut. Now, how important it is to make this guy's cut .., is certainly debatable. Why do you say we won't make the cut when it has been pointed out by several posters? Instead, this guy is probably ranking teams similar to their prior year performances. We have been good for 3 years in a row, and to the lazy reporter, that means we will be good (and make the cut) now a fourth year in the row. To me, that's why we will make the cut." Some homeworks appears to have been done, yes? Ace attacked him by posting a picture of him and derisive plans to go "back and read his West Virginia women's basketball preview." Good reading?

There was some other great stuff too .. Dwayne's World asked "What makes everyone think Manning is going to be the same or worse? By all means he should be BETTER this season. How much better? That is the question. But he filled a good defensive role last season, and if he can stay out of foul trouble he should be solid. Cheeseman counter with "(to) agree that to expect GG and JM to become players that can carry the team is being very optimistic. Now am I saying they have to be DE or JJ quality - no but doubling their stats from last year won't cut it either. Lets just wait and see. We will get a good chance to see what kind of coaching skill JC has this year if we are going to succeed." Amen brother.

The Chosen One had a great idea, one of us should do our write up. So I did "on writing a preview, it would be quite short. Too many unknowns ...... Glaze may have started before but contributed little. Manning has occupied the bench for three years. McBroom had a limited role last year, can he expand it this year?. Yacoubou had underperforming years at Nova. Who knows what that will mean at SLU. And the three rising sophomores did little to distinguish themselves last year. The rest are freshmen. Outside of the known unknowns, the rest of the positives in any article will likely have to come from intangibles like continuity, work ethics, coaching system and other things that are difficult to measure. I'm not sold on expecting massive positive results. in a 'growing pains' kind of year.

slufan13 stated in his belief of the sophomores and how they were ready to play and would contribute mightily "the sophomores have been extremely impressive all summer. I assume Agbeko is still getting back to full strength after his surgery, but Crawford and Lancona both have been working their asses off this summer and have been impressive. They know they're going to be required to have significant roles and they're putting in the time and effort to be able to take on that role. Manning is another player who will be big this season. Still worry about his ability to stay out of foul trouble, but he's going to be good." Reclama?

kshoe picked on slu72, questioning his realistic prediction of 14-16 as "realisitc." kshoe said "with the soft non-con schedule and 17 home games, 18 wins seems about right." Both kshoe and NH were close in the starting prediction -- kshoe said three upperclassmen would start; NH thought it a greater than 80% chance we start no freshmen at all. Both were actually right as the starting lineup against SIUC was AM, AY, DR, JM and TL. That starting lineup lasted two games and by the time November was over, four freshemn had started one game already. In case you forgot, TL started three of the first five games. Yikes! RUBills fan graded the coming season this way: under .500 disappointing; over .500 okay; over 20 wins ecstatic. Clock Tower said anything shortof 18 wins was disappointing and put in for an expected 20 wins. bauman had 22 wins. Dwayne surmised this nugget "whatever wacko is writing this .. only 2 or 3 posters agree with him ... (he's) a joke." kwyjibo ran Dan Hanner's pick -- he had us 10th and actually said he'd picked the Bills lower because Crews will teach defense. Ughh. Abomb also concluded "if SLU is not ... top 144 ... then something went really, really wrong." kshoe again "being below 144 is like falling off the faceof the earth" and 'sayign we aren't top 144 is the same as saying we are going tobe awful. Common sense does ntosay that we are going to be awful." Er, yeah, we were awful. 298th/259th awful. Homers for sure. And just so you when Wesler is back this fall, I'll be there too. For discussion. This was fun.

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I'll go ahead and admit to being wrong. I said the sophs looked good. Crawford ended up being one of our better players when healthy and Reggie came on at the end, but man Lancona. Luckily I know who to listen to and who not this year. Regardless, I'm going to keep it to myself until the season starts this year. I'm not some expert with a bunch of surefire inside info so no use in risking making a fool of myself. Summer speculation caused optimism that I probably shouldn't have had which made this season harder to handle. The positive vibes are nice, but what we do in November is better.

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Taj you will be missed, have a great summer.

As far as your monograph level post above, it could be summarized in a simple way. People see what they want to see. I have been guilty as well of optimism for our team during this past year. I do not take this personally, I also see what I really want to see and confuse with reality at times, this is my fault I know.

All the best for summer and hope your return will be greeted by a much better season next year (see how it goes, this is what I really want to see next year).

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Just proof we are all mbm's. Amazing though how those that attacked you never came back and apologized. Wait. No its not all that amazing. I've been there.

See you in September taj. Can't wait.

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No sh!t that everyone that posted a record prediction ended up being wrong about this season. Nobody saw this awfulness coming. Without bothering to go back and look, my recollection was that SLU72 was closest with his 14 win prediction. If there was one lower then congratulations to him/her.

Taj, did you actually have a numerical prediction of our record? I don't recall it if you did. If you did my sincerest apologies and please post a link to it. Thanks, and I can't wait for your response.

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Taj, thanks for posting. I have been consistent in saying that it is fair for people to be held accountable for what they have said. There were a lot of unknowns heading into this season and it was worse than I imagined it would be, so I was definitely wrong, along with a lot of other people. I have been wrong on other things too. I thought Sodie was the answer after he landed Lisch and Liddell. I thought Polk was going to be a pretty good PG. Wrong again. I have never understood why some people on here have such a hard time admitting when they are wrong about something... like saying Jordair is going to transfer or Jordair looks like Dwayne Polk with dreadlocks. It seems some of our resident old-timers have a difficult time admitting when they are wrong. Instead, they tend to say they were taken out of context or people are personally attacking them, when somebody disagrees. Or when they have some of their strong opinions challenged, they get their feelings hurt, and are reduced to delivering their passive aggressive posts through long manifestos.

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To be fair when I saw Fordham and Duquense made the list, I think I said we'd be somewhere between 90-110. However, the more summaries I read I figured out we weren't going to make the list after he got to around 90. Most of those teams either had contributing returnees, good transfers, or solid JUCOs and incoming FR. All we had was what appeared to be solid incoming FR. We had no proven vets, a questionable transfer, and no JUCOs. As it turns out the guy was right.

Funny post, Taj Mahal 79, as I think we all got a good "wake up and smell the coffe" call this season. As for next year, I'll go on record here in March and say we ain't making the 144 cut next year either. And without seeing the schedule we'll finish with a .500 record and be in the bottom fourth of the A10.

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No **** that everyone that posted a record prediction ended up being wrong about this season. Nobody saw this awfulness coming. Without bothering to go back and look, my recollection was that SLU72 was closest with his 14 win prediction. If there was one lower then congratulations to him/her.

Taj, did you actually have a numerical prediction of our record? I don't recall it if you did. If you did my sincerest apologies and please post a link to it. Thanks, and I can't wait for your response.

Consider that with all that thrashing that anyone who was skeptical about a winning season received and I think you can quickly deduce why there were minimal challenges to the general winning season narrative.

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Taj.

First, wish you would reconsider but clearly understand.

Second, you are absolutely correct about your preseason thoughts as opposed to nearly all of the rest of us. Now, the rest of all are similar but not similar. Personally, the assumptions I made were clearly wrong. I had no knowledge about how good/bad our Frosh would be but I nonetheless overestimated the non-Frosh. Specifically, I assumed that all 3 Sophs would have break out years and lead -- but they did not. Yes, Crawford and Reggie showed improvement at the end of the end of the season but TL did not and all 3 did not lead or consistently contribute all season long. Also, I clearly drank the blue kool-aide regarding Ash. And of course, Ash was one of our better players but the production received from him, when you factor in his position played, the amount or minutes given and the fact that the others looked to him for baskets during key moments of games and as the shot clock ran down, and I would say that the production we received is more what you find on a last place conference team than on an 18 or 20 game winning team. I also overestimated AM and assumed he would have improved his game after disappearing last year in the A10 Also, I assumed Manning would have a sold/break out year. In fairness, injury hurt his production this year possibly even more than last year. I have no inside information on Manning but he just did not look like the same player he show in flashes these past 3 years. Same with Glaze. I assumed he would have started as our power forward, thought he would be good/positive influence and thought he would be replaced just like Jordair replaced Kyle in the middle of the year. Finally, I overestimated Jim Crews. Our team had some bad breaks, some injuries, some close games which could have been wins instead of losses but they clearly stopped playing for him. I expected the team to gel and get better as the year went on. They didn't gel and ended on a 5 game losing streak against teams they should have beaten. Maybe bad chemistry and bad apples but this team should have have won at least 3 more games, and if so, a 14 win season v. an 18 to 20 win season would still be a difference.

Can't wait for next year.

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One thing we can all agree on is that we underperformed this season but I am confident the guys will be much better next season. Off season will be a time for reflection and a whole lot of work. My only advice to the guys are do not depend on the staff to get you better. Do that on your own...train with those who can make you better. At this time till official practices begin in the Fall it is up to the players to take their games to the next level. Work hard work smarter!

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Clarification: the novels are done but when someone asks, I respond. I read you guys religiously each day, morning and evening, y'know. And I couldn't post this in a "hit-n-run" capacity, now could I?

@kshoe: no, I never made a posted prediction/projection on the public board. I gave it to fellow MBMs and they know who they are and how I did. Why? Because you are predictable and I knew you would respond this way and while I don't need your validation, I wanted to see how I woudl really do if I did. For all the guff given Welser and questioning his credibility, at least he did not predict records. Things change. Kids quit. Coaches quit/get ill/fired. Kids get hurt. Momentum shifts. Predictions are ludicrous in fact but the discussion they stimulate is priceless. I AM NOT SMART ENOUGH TO KNOW. And an admirable job trying to shift the discussion from what was said on the Top 144 to a record prediction question. Right on topic, er method.

@ace: yes, I admit that I said I thought Jett was a good candidate for transfer after his sophomore year. I think I said I ended up wrong but if I didn't I NOW ADMIT I WAS WRONG. Case closed. The same inspection might have been applied to a certain forward from California this year. Saw that coming back in January but decided to let that go its natural course this time. And if I said JJ was Polk with dreds, how bad was that? JJ at least made huge layups and occassional jumpers. Polk made nothing. I have no problem being wrong, my percentages for "making" that shot are probably my strong side. What I have a problem with is guys who go back two, three, four years and keep using certain statements as continuing proof in their debates du jour. Like what will hapopen now to poor DocB and his "Jolly = beast" comment.

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I will respond -- cringing at my predictions, now. what a bust...

I've admitted months ago I was dead wrong. These guys have potential but they were quite bad for most of the A10 season. Spurts of good play but long periods of -- well, lousy and uninspired chaos. I have no problem saying just how wrong I was. I'll go even farther -- I had a lot of trouble diagnosing the problem. I think in retrospect so did the coaches, which might help explain the seemingly irrational rotation choices. They just had a hard time keeping guys in when they made one or 2 bonehead plays. that style reminded me of the old days with Coach Knight at IU -- when even one turnover, out came Butch Carter or Wayne Radford. Carter and Radford went on to become excellent players, btw. But as underclassmen: Sit down, knucklehead, and stay there for the rest of the half!! Knight could be ruthless that way.

For individuals: Lancona was a huge mystery until I heard about the chemistry/personal issues that ended up with his being let go. He simply could not hit the side of a barn with a handful of rice, even though last year he showed much promise. Big mystery there. RA and MC both FINALLY BEGAN TO EMERGE... but it took almost the entire season, while I thought by December we would see that. RA was a force of natuere in practices; needs to transfer to the floor. Roby is the best freshman by far, I've compared him to Charlie Bell of MSU in the past and I'm sticking with that, he is the core player. Nuff said. MY really did not seem ready to me; he has skills but I think my estimation of him as a freshman turned out correct: great offensive skills and upside, but head not in the game in every other area. He's a better rebounder than I thought as well.

I admit one final time: I found this year very confusing and I still have a hard time putting my finger on the problems: ON THE COURT. Off the court--I also underestimated the chemistry problems and head cases that we inherited here. Believe me, without going into details, it was the personalities that had much to do with our failures this year. Did not see that coming....

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http://www.bbstate.com/info/teams-hoopsbudget

Speaking of numbers, these are the numbers for the 2013 hoops budgets. What do people want and expect for SLU? How does SLU compare to other teams? Some schools will outperform their budgets, others won't. Budgets are just one aspect of a program. It's always interesting to take a look. SLU comes in at 98.

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I admit one final time: I found this year very confusing and I still have a hard time putting my finger on the problems: ON THE COURT. Off the court--I also underestimated the chemistry problems and head cases that we inherited here. Believe me, without going into details, it was the personalities that had much to do with our failures this year. Did not see that coming....

-I guess AMc, GG and JM could be among inherited as they were here before JCrews was head coach, he brought in the remainder of the roster

-addition by subtraction is what it seems you are indicating, time will tell

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Taj, good to know that you had a secret prediction/projection that ended up being correct. Congratulations on that achievement. I'd also like to congratulate you on privately determining in January that Tanner Lancona was a transfer candidate mid-season. Sherlock has nothing on you.

I think its fair to point out that for as long as he has been posting, Taj is generally the most negative poster on this board. Sure, he has moments when he has a positive view (typically these show up shortly after you attend a game in person) but for the most part you have a view that is more negative then most in general and certainly more negative then most fans (most of which tend to view things positively). It's who you are and its part of your billikens.com personality. It is fine to have negative views and I'm sure it serves a purpose to balance the board some. In the past few years, someone that didn't know your history would describe you as "grounded" while the rest of us were dreaming of Sweet 16s and a consistent top 25 program.

I'm also sure that if we went back through time and looked at the seasons the Bills have had, in years where the Bills perform better than expected, Taj's predictions would be way off, perhaps the most off of any poster. In seasons where they performed as expected by the consensus, he would only mildly be off, and in seasons where they sucked he would be the most right of anyone. Again, there may be an excpetion here or there but I suspect more of then not that is true. To use a financial analogy, Taj is a constant bear. When its a bull market he looks like a fool but when its a bear market he looks like a genius.

So should it be any surprise, that in the worst season in 30 years, Taj's secret prediction/projection was more right than the board's consensus? Again, congratulations on your secret prediction being "right"

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I'd rather read taj's realistic honest opinions than your personal sarcastic attacks on posters all the time. Taj at least provides discussion fodder. While you provide absolutely nothing.

There are about 4 of you that fancy yourselves as board protectors of some sort when in reality I think you do more to chase away good discussion.

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I'd rather read taj's realistic honest opinions than your personal sarcastic attacks on posters all the time. Taj at least provides discussion fodder. While you provide absolutely nothing.

There are about 4 of you that fancy yourselves as board protectors of some sort when in reality I think you do more to chase away good discussion.

OK then. Next time Taj has a post that we really don't need/want Jayson Tatum or BAB posts that Butler didn't belong in the BE instead of us because we have a larger endowment and a head-to-head winning record, or you post that Cassity has NBA potential, I'll just keep my mouth shut.

I think Ace nailed it earlier in this thread. There are about 4-5 posters ranging between 45-55 in age that simply can't handle it when someone younger challenges their thoughts and "when they have some of their strong opinions challenged, they get their feelings hurt, and are reduced to delivering their passive aggressive posts through long manifestos."

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I will respond -- cringing at my predictions, now. what a bust...

I've admitted months ago I was dead wrong. These guys have potential but they were quite bad for most of the A10 season. Spurts of good play but long periods of -- well, lousy and uninspired chaos. I have no problem saying just how wrong I was. I'll go even farther -- I had a lot of trouble diagnosing the problem. I think in retrospect so did the coaches, which might help explain the seemingly irrational rotation choices. They just had a hard time keeping guys in when they made one or 2 bonehead plays. that style reminded me of the old days with Coach Knight at IU -- when even one turnover, out came Butch Carter or Wayne Radford. Carter and Radford went on to become excellent players, btw. But as underclassmen: Sit down, knucklehead, and stay there for the rest of the half!! Knight could be ruthless that way.

For individuals: Lancona was a huge mystery until I heard about the chemistry/personal issues that ended up with his being let go. He simply could not hit the side of a barn with a handful of rice, even though last year he showed much promise. Big mystery there. RA and MC both FINALLY BEGAN TO EMERGE... but it took almost the entire season, while I thought by December we would see that. RA was a force of natuere in practices; needs to transfer to the floor. Roby is the best freshman by far, I've compared him to Charlie Bell of MSU in the past and I'm sticking with that, he is the core player. Nuff said. MY really did not seem ready to me; he has skills but I think my estimation of him as a freshman turned out correct: great offensive skills and upside, but head not in the game in every other area. He's a better rebounder than I thought as well.

I admit one final time: I found this year very confusing and I still have a hard time putting my finger on the problems: ON THE COURT. Off the court--I also underestimated the chemistry problems and head cases that we inherited here. Believe me, without going into details, it was the personalities that had much to do with our failures this year. Did not see that coming....

Will those chemistry problems be solved by the transfers?

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I loved the look back at our comments. If we aren't optimistic at the beginning of a new season, we're not truly fans. We should have someone do a retrospective on our predictions every year. If you can't take a little criticism about missing on an opinion or a prediction, then don't make them.

The more I thought about the 144 Prediction, the more I realized that the sad thing about this season was not that we, as Billiken fans, were so far off in our evaluation of the team we love. The truly disheartening part is that outsiders could apparently clearly identify that our team was not good before the season started. I'm trying to wrap my mind around what that says about our decline this season.

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I think it was pretty fair to expect to be in the top 144. Even our 12-19 season finished in the top 144. I know it's a different kind of ranking and all, but it still was a fair thought.

Next year's prediction threads will be really interesting.

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OK then. Next time Taj has a post that we really don't need/want Jayson Tatum or BAB posts that Butler didn't belong in the BE instead of us because we have a larger endowment and a head-to-head winning record, or you post that Cassity has NBA potential, I'll just keep my mouth shut.

I think Ace nailed it earlier in this thread. There are about 4-5 posters ranging between 45-55 in age that simply can't handle it when someone younger challenges their thoughts and "when they have some of their strong opinions challenged, they get their feelings hurt, and are reduced to delivering their passive aggressive posts through long manifestos."

Well, good morning to you from the Left Coast. Your inclusion of BAB, even evidently in your stated demographic, is a veritable Badge of Honor. Even from 1,732 air miles away, BAB is glad to know that he still belongs.

Butler, man. It's all Butler at Billikens.com. Go Butler. The Butler did it (in the Conservatory, with the candlestick?).

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I think it was pretty fair to expect to be in the top 144. Even our 12-19 season finished in the top 144. I know it's a different kind of ranking and all, but it still was a fair thought.

Next year's prediction threads will be really interesting.

Yep. All over the place. I expect the range to be from about 8 to 20 wins. And I'm just gonna go out on a limb and guess that we won't be in the Top 144 next preseason.

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