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Bills by 17 over Duq


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And the winning keeps coming..........

Hmm...17pts....pretty bold prediction considering we just scratched out a 4 pt win against them last time. I think some home cooking, along with some better play and a dose of killer instinct and we will make the spread.

Of course, Duq is a cellar dweller...but they are our cellar dweller. In the outside world, Duq is an average team. ( C ). In 3 pt shooting, they are similar to GW...except they like to shoot more. They have one of the best shooters in the A-10....Mason....shooting 55% from 3 and overall plus 82% from FT.

Here is what we need to do to win......

Stop Soko and Mason....hold Soko to 15 pts and Mason to 40% from 3....can't believe I just wrote that ...shooting 40% from 3 is usually a great night....but it will be a job to keep him at 40%

Hold White and Colter to 25% from 3

We alway win when.....

We hold the opp to 59pts or less.......................16-0

Jett scores 16pts or more .................................10-0

Have 14 or fewer TO...........................................9-0

We shoot 48% FG...............................................6-0

When we hold the opp to 32.8%FG%.................6-0

Ways to exceed the spread...............

Hold them to 19 FGM

As far as the numbers are concerned this is a no win situation for the Bills.....If we exceed the spread it doesn't help us much....if we win a close one , it hurts the numbers. I say just keep winning.

Today's Trivia question.....As noted above , Duq is a cellar dweller but an average team overall. Name 2 conferences that according to the Wiz stats that Duq would be in 1st place and going for the auto bid to the Big Dance.

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I am fine with a "no win" situation considering we have to play the #22 RPI at their place less than 48 hours later. Winning both would give us a big net jump for the week even if Duquesne is another squeaker.

Can't we just have a "laugher" for once....it has been a while....I want to see LePak.

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These are the predicted lines per The Wiz versus the actual result so far during A10 play (reverse order):

Bills by 5 over GWU ----- Bills by 7 (+2)

Bills by 8 over GMU ----- Bills by 4 (-4)

Bills by 3 over VCU ----- Bills by 2 (-1)

Bills by 5.5 over LAS ----- Bills by 2 (-3.5)

Bills by 2.5 over STJ ----- Bills by 16 (+13.5)

Bills by 14 over GMU ----- Bills by 6 (-8)

Bills by 7.5 over RICH ----- Bills by 20 (+12.5)

Bills by 11 over DUQ ----- Bills by 4 (-7)

Bills by 19 over FOR ----- Bills by 22 (+3)

Bills by 10 over STB ----- Bills by 6 (-4)

DAY by 1.5 over Bills ----- Bills by 8 (+9.5)

Bills by 9 over URI ----- Bills by 1 (-8)

On a net basis, The Wiz is off by 5 points so far this season (Bills have outperformed by 5), which means he is averaging within 0.42 of the actual spread. However, this includes the Bills outperforming against STJ and RICH, while underperforming against URI, GMU and DUQ. The average absolute value of the variance between The Wiz and the results is 6.333.

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Wiz will be 12 for 14 after we beat VCU.

We're gonna be 6-7 point underdogs at VCU, give or take.

VCU will need the game a lot more than us, a home revenge game against a team that already clinched the A-10, little to gain, sure "THE STREAK" but I think we are in trouble for this one.

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