JohnnyJumpUp Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I don't know if anyone posted this but Timmermann spoke with Crews about not rebounding during free throws. (Crews) thinks SLU is a good free throw shooting team, so there aren't many rebounds (despite how it may seem, SLU is third in the A-10 in free throw shooting); SLU isn't a very good offensive rebounding team anyway; it helps the team get the defense set up. SLU has missed 39 "live" free throws this season -- that is, free throws where the ball is in play after a miss. In the run of play, SLU gets an offensive rebound on about three out of every 10 missed shots. If the same rate was applicable to free throws -- and I suspect the rate is probably a little lower for free throws because the defense is guaranteed inside position -- that's about nine offensive rebounds SLU hasn't gotten. (Or less than one per game.) How does that balance with improved defense on the other end from having everyone back? I don't know. SLU does average about one point per offensive rebound (109 points on 104 offensive rebounds this season), so the cost is less than a point a game. The net gain by having the defense in position is harder to measure, but if it's kept an opponent from scoring once per game when they would have otherwise, you come out ahead. http://www.stltoday.com/sports/college/slu/slu-new-mexico-in-review/article_7be4134c-08f1-56b8-922f-b181515987d5.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufanskip Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I would suspect the percentage of o-boards on free-throws is less than 1 in 10. Even with that said, I'm not sure I like the idea of not rebounding during our attempts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franchise_89 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Is this comparable to the Cardinal's batting the pitcher 8th? Jim Crews is no Tony Larussa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I don't know if anyone posted this but Timmermann spoke with Crews about not rebounding during free throws.(Crews) thinks SLU is a good free throw shooting team, so there aren't many rebounds (despite how it may seem, SLU is third in the A-10 in free throw shooting); SLU isn't a very good offensive rebounding team anyway; it helps the team get the defense set up. SLU has missed 39 "live" free throws this season -- that is, free throws where the ball is in play after a miss. In the run of play, SLU gets an offensive rebound on about three out of every 10 missed shots. If the same rate was applicable to free throws -- and I suspect the rate is probably a little lower for free throws because the defense is guaranteed inside position -- that's about nine offensive rebounds SLU hasn't gotten. (Or less than one per game.) How does that balance with improved defense on the other end from having everyone back? I don't know. SLU does average about one point per offensive rebound (109 points on 104 offensive rebounds this season), so the cost is less than a point a game. The net gain by having the defense in position is harder to measure, but if it's kept an opponent from scoring once per game when they would have otherwise, you come out ahead. http://www.stltoday.com/sports/college/slu/slu-new-mexico-in-review/article_7be4134c-08f1-56b8-922f-b181515987d5.html evan and remeken and jett are very very good offensive rebounders. if this strategy is so sound why does no one else do it except at the end of games when the score is fairly secure? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StlCardinal Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I couldn't find FT O-rebounding percentages for college, but in the NBA, about 13% of FT result in an O-Reb. As Skip points out, that's probably a little generous still since we're not a good offensive rebounding team to begin with. Using that conservative 13% number, we've conceded 5.3 points over 13 games so far by not attempting to rebound (.13 * 39 live rebounds * 1.05 pts per poss.). Another factor Timmerman doesn't include is the chance for committing a foul while trying to rebound. I don't have the numbers to quantify that, but I think it's reasonable to conclude that the value of having the D set up and not having a chance to commit a foul with our big men is at least a break even with the 5 points we would have gained to date. All in all, it's a lot like the LaRussa pitcher-batting-eighth thing: goes against conventional wisdom, gives us fans something to gripe about, but really doesn't make a big difference in the long run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Pelican Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I don't have a problem with not lining up for offensive free throws. I think it's much ado about nothing. They are so rarely gotten by the shooting team that I'd rather set up the defense and avoid fouls by the bigs. And you can't compare offensive rebounding stats with free throw rebounding. Not the same thing at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyJumpUp Posted January 2, 2013 Author Share Posted January 2, 2013 All in all, it's a lot like the LaRussa pitcher-batting-eighth thing: goes against conventional wisdom, gives us fans something to gripe about, but really doesn't make a big difference in the long run. I agree. We knew Crews had his reasons for it, but there's no way to ever know for sure if it works or not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 There's also the rare possibility of a contested rebound resulting in the defensive team knocking the ball out of bounds or travelling. (Not that I care one way or the other; I'm just saying.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I posted my thoughts on this in another thread (near the bottom of page 2): http://www.billikens.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=23247&page=2 StLCardinal is right that the Offensive rebound rate is around 13% in the NBA (I used 12% in my example). Also, the points per (after) rebounded possession is different than general points per possession (as Timmerman notes and he confirms my 1.06 pt estimate). It is true I did not count the lack of "set" or "organized" defense as a cost to putting people in place to rebound FTs but I doubt that it is so horrible as to make it a net cost decision. The problem is that even tweaking the numbers, the benefits outweigh the costs. There is a reason, as Roy suggests, that everyone else does it. I do not think it is a big deal (my estimates and Timmerman's numbers suggest it is a net loss of around a half of a point). The problem is over 30 games the odds that the half point is going to be the difference goes up to real numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
someoneelse Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 A lot of free throw shooting is doing the same thing over and over again. If you are used to seeing teammates at their spots, it may make a difference. Does the high fiving after the first make a difference? Dean Smith teams used to have the quick huddle and that probably helped. I tend to think it matters little if at all, but conceding a rebound doesn't seem quite right either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbizzle09 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 This subject, the use (or lack) of timeouts and John Manning's playing time are three things that will be discussed ad nauseum during and after every game this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billiken4life5 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Crews gets a mention on ESPN today. Little premature. http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/8801398/king-court-examines-most-critical-players-conference-season-college-basketball Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbizzle09 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Crews gets a mention on ESPN today. Little premature. http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/8801398/king-court-examines-most-critical-players-conference-season-college-basketball A little shout out to Charlie Gitto's in the article, too! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheeseman Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Anybody who is now being overly critical of the job Crews is doing is off base - he has improved tremendously since the Santa Clara debacle. Does he deserve a raise - who knows but his coaching will do nothing to answer the question - can he recruit? We are at a point where we can not afford to have a guy drop the ball recruiting over the next two years - the transfer of Carter just made this even worse - we must find someone who can restock/reload this spring and next fall. Is Crews the man - I have yet to see any evidence from his past to suggest this. I know he went to 3-4 NCAA appearances like 14-15 years ago at Evansville but the MVC is not the A10. This not contesting the rebound of a missed free throw drives me crazy - for some reason it just is against my nature to just say that getting a missed shot rebound is not important in the grand picture - you can recite all the numbers you want and you may be right but it just simply irks me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 This subject, the use (or lack) of timeouts and John Manning's playing time are three things that will be discussed ad nauseum during and after every game this season. -these and as Cheese points out can Crews recruit -I think part of the ft rebounding deal is that it is different, so different, than what literally every other team is doing it upsets some people -I am ok with it as he shows the thought behind it (my rational until seeing the TT piece was he was resting the bigs and setting up defense, now I see the numbers) -I still hope there is a better option to coach for us next season and the free throw thing is a complete non-factor for me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franchise_89 Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Did anyone see the Illinois-Purdue game where an offensive rebound off of a missed free throw sealed the game for the Boilermakers? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 I think it's situational --- but recognize it's become our normal and standard procedure. Crews has answered the "why" question. And based on the facts that we are talking about a point a game, I have no more issues with it. Sure, it can lead to exactly the situation franchise89 mentions -- every blu emoon maybe. But it does indeed happen. If that's the norm so be it. I have no problem setting up the defense and going from there seeing as our defense sets our game tone more times than not. I also suspect it can change. If we are down late and need the ball, I can see the lane manned. If we have a play to intentionally miss the shot, then I can see Manning, Loe, Evans and Remekun in the boxes. If we are behind and intend to press, then I can see Mitchell, McCall or Jett in the boxes and about to apply on-the-ball pressure. That's what New Mexico was trying with us. I seem to recall instances last year where Conklin was th eonly guy on the lane for rebounding "pressure." Because he knew to get back and could? Loe and manning don't strike me that way but maybe Evans and/or Remekun. When we need that point in a game, I'm sure we'll adjust adequately. This is minor. And now we know why. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARon Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Crews gave his reasoning for this at the Billiken Club meeting back in early December. Basically the same answer he gave TT. Though he added that part of this thinking on this come from years of watching players (both his and others) putting forth lackluster efforts in going for the rebound in those situations. He said that he hasn't specifically instructed the players not to stand at the line. Just that's he's told them, "if you aren't going to go all out for that rebound I'd rather see you back in your defensive set." I've noticed that JB and JM will stay up sometimes, even when the rest of the team is back. This seems to happen when they are fresh off the bench. Seeing our guys get back and really frustrate teams like Memphis by shutting down fast-breaks and transitions the last few years, I kinda like the strategy. Memphis was so sure they could run us last year and I remember one of their players lamenting, "You'd look up and they'd all be back already. We couldn't get anything started." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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