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Billiken Rich

Can we win the A10?

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I think Temple knocking off the Bonnies last night ended any real hope.

I was pulling hard for them but they just couldnt pull it off. I was shocked before the game when I saw the line was only Temple -1

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Yes we can. The only major bump in the road is Xavier. Any other loss would be "a stunner" in my book. For the argument, we win out. Temple has to lose two as rich points out. The game last night was a possible loss but the Bonnies ran out of emotion. That leaves two, cross-city games at Hagan and Gola. Talent-wise, i can't see either St. Joe's or La Salle beating Temple. But they are "on the road," they are in the Big Five domain of Philadelphia so never say never.

But I second sshoe's "small chance" comment. I'm okay with the two, as long as Xavier finishes fourth. Let X and Temple have at it before we see either in AC. Plus if Umass finishes thiurd, I'd like to erase one of our record's blemishes.

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ACE    4

Yes we can. The only major bump in the road is Xavier. Any other loss would be "a stunner" in my book. For the argument, we win out. Temple has to lose two as rich points out. The game last night was a possible loss but the Bonnies ran out of emotion. That leaves two, cross-city games at Hagan and Gola. Talent-wise, i can't see either St. Joe's or La Salle beating Temple. But they are "on the road," they are in the Big Five domain of Philadelphia so never say never.

But I second sshoe's "small chance" comment. I'm okay with the two, as long as Xavier finishes fourth. Let X and Temple have at it before we see either in AC. Plus if Umass finishes thiurd, I'd like to erase one of our record's blemishes.

Losing at Duquesne would not be a "stunner" in my book. Agreed about wanting to play UMass again. I would love it if we could get that game in the semis, followed by Temple in the finals. Temple has owned us, but I want to take that shot.

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"But I second sshoe's "small chance" comment. I'm okay with the two, as long as Xavier finishes fourth. Let X and Temple have at it before we see either in AC. Plus if Umass finishes third, I'd like to erase one of our record's blemishes."

AGREED! It would be great to see both Umass and Temple again. Maybe we could run into New Mexico again, as well. Letting Rickma game plan twice for a team is always a good thing.

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"Agreement?" This is a new, foreign place in my world on this board. I'd better get the hell out of here ..........................................................................................

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Temple doesn't need to lose 2 games, they need to lose 1 game.

Finishing tied for first is still a big deal, even if he don't own the tiebreaker. We haven't tied for a regular season conference title since 1971. The tiebreaker only applies to the tournament seeding. X finished tied for first with Temple in 2010 (and lost the lone head to head matchup) but they still count it in their streak of consecutive A10 titles.

If we win out and Temple drops 1 game, we're claiming a share of the title.

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That's a different focus, duff. I was solely concetrating on the #1 seed in AC. A shared title, with banner hanging in Chaifetz, would be great!!!!! That and the 2012 NCAA banner.

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Agreed, the chance is very small. Regardless of what we do, I don't see Temple losing 2 games.

Why not? They still play at St Joes, at La Salle, and UMass at home. Keep in mind they lost to Richmond on the road and Dayton at home, both by double digits.

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We just have to win out. If we do it will be us and Temple on top and a nice seperation from the rest of the league. Temple will probably lose at least one more. If we tie are we co champs? or does the tie breaker automatically kick and declare them regular season champs?

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Why not? They still play at St Joes, at La Salle, and UMass at home. Keep in mind they lost to Richmond on the road and Dayton at home, both by double digits.

I think their big stud, eric?, is back and seems to be healthy/in shape. I just don't see them losing 2 with the talent between Eric, Wyatt, Moore and Juan. I would love to be wrong.

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Temple doesn't need to lose 2 games, they need to lose 1 game.

Finishing tied for first is still a big deal, even if he don't own the tiebreaker. We haven't tied for a regular season conference title since 1971. The tiebreaker only applies to the tournament seeding. X finished tied for first with Temple in 2010 (and lost the lone head to head matchup) but they still count it in their streak of consecutive A10 titles.

If we win out and Temple drops 1 game, we're claiming a share of the title.

Agreed 100%.

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Temple doesn't need to lose 2 games, they need to lose 1 game.

Finishing tied for first is still a big deal, even if he don't own the tiebreaker. We haven't tied for a regular season conference title since 1971. The tiebreaker only applies to the tournament seeding. X finished tied for first with Temple in 2010 (and lost the lone head to head matchup) but they still count it in their streak of consecutive A10 titles.

If we win out and Temple drops 1 game, we're claiming a share of the title.

Absolutely the right way to look at it. The banner will be there forever, and it won't have an asterisk on it.

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Temple doesn't need to lose 2 games, they need to lose 1 game.

Finishing tied for first is still a big deal, even if he don't own the tiebreaker. We haven't tied for a regular season conference title since 1971. The tiebreaker only applies to the tournament seeding. X finished tied for first with Temple in 2010 (and lost the lone head to head matchup) but they still count it in their streak of consecutive A10 titles.

If we win out and Temple drops 1 game, we're claiming a share of the title.

This could be a good scenario, too, because we'd get the 2-seed in AC and Temple would be on the other side of the bracket and Xavier looks like it might be the 4-seed and would also be on the other side.

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I think their big stud, eric?, is back and seems to be healthy/in shape. I just don't see them losing 2 with the talent between Eric, Wyatt, Moore and Juan. I would love to be wrong.

They also trailed almost the entire time and just BARELY snuck by at home vs GW.

2 seasons ago, Temple and Xavier were tied for first at 14-2 in the conference, while Temple won the head-to-head matchup, and Xavier fans on the A-10 board always go on about their 5 straight A-10 championships, so if we are tied with Temple at 13-3 we can claim an A-10 championship too.

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They also trailed almost the entire time and just BARELY snuck by at home vs GW.

2 seasons ago, Temple and Xavier were tied for first at 14-2 in the conference, while Temple won the head-to-head matchup, and their fans on the A-10 board always go on about their 5 straight A-10 championships, so if we are tied with Temple at 13-3 we can claim an A-10 championship too.

Good point. Anything can happen. I can definitely see Temple dropping one, I just think it's a small chance that they drop 2.

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Good point. Anything can happen. I can definitely see Temple dropping one, I just think it's a small chance that they drop 2.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Temple.html

82% to beat Duquesne at home, 46% to beat La Salle, 48% to beat St Joes, 76% to beat UMass, 91% to beat Fordham (all using Sagarin predictor). It's about 50-50 that they'll either lose none or one, or lose 2 or more.

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At the risk of pissing off MB73, let's pull in some computers to help with the probabilities of various scenarios.

Per Sagarin's predictor

Chances of SLU:

Winning out: 59%

Losing 1: 35%

Losing 2 or more : 6%

Chances of Temple:

Winning out: 13%

Losing 1: 37%

Losing 2: 35%

Losing 3 or more : 15%

With the magic of cumulative probabilities and assuming the results are independent of eachother, and ignoring the teams below us, we can calculate the following:

Chances of:

Temple winning outright: 30%

Tie: 35%

SLU winning outright: 35%

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Temple doesn't need to lose 2 games, they need to lose 1 game.

Finishing tied for first is still a big deal, even if he don't own the tiebreaker. We haven't tied for a regular season conference title since 1971. The tiebreaker only applies to the tournament seeding. X finished tied for first with Temple in 2010 (and lost the lone head to head matchup) but they still count it in their streak of consecutive A10 titles.

If we win out and Temple drops 1 game, we're claiming a share of the title.

Good point. I revise my original post.

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http://www.rpiforeca...ams/Temple.html

82% to beat Duquesne at home, 46% to beat La Salle, 48% to beat St Joes, 76% to beat UMass, 91% to beat Fordham (all using Sagarin predictor). It's about 50-50 that they'll either lose none or one, or lose 2 or more.

Stupid math and statistics.

Good stuff, thanks for posting.

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