The Wiz Posted December 19, 2009 Share Posted December 19, 2009 nm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawk Posted December 19, 2009 Share Posted December 19, 2009 nm was that prediction with or without KM? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 19, 2009 Author Share Posted December 19, 2009 With KM...so if we lose by more than 2 you can figure the KM factor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted December 19, 2009 Share Posted December 19, 2009 With KM...so if we lose by more than 2 you can figure the KM factor. Vegas has us at a Pick-em right now. I figured we'd be favored by 4 or so in Vegas with KM so that seems about right to me. Maybe I'd favor MSU by a point or two at this point. In my opinion, the computers still don't have enough data at this point to accurately predict these games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatic314 Posted December 19, 2009 Share Posted December 19, 2009 Vegas has us at a Pick-em right now. I figured we'd be favored by 4 or so in Vegas with KM so that seems about right to me. Maybe I'd favor MSU by a point or two at this point. In my opinion, the computers still don't have enough data at this point to accurately predict these games. MSU was a 2 point favorite in your place before KM went down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted December 19, 2009 Share Posted December 19, 2009 MSU was a 2 point favorite in your place before KM went down. According to the computer, yes. But not according to Vegas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearvision Posted December 19, 2009 Share Posted December 19, 2009 Vegas is not picking who they think will win. They are setting a line hoping for 50/50 betting, as that is a no lose situation for them. Nothing but pure profit if they can do that due to the juice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheA_Bomb Posted December 19, 2009 Share Posted December 19, 2009 This argument comes up everytime. Vegas is placing the line at a place to even out the betting that is true but there is also one team favored over the other SMS at -2 means they are favored by two. Lines are based on some secret statistical analysis/vodoo. If the Colts are favored by -14 v. the Rams that means they think the Colts will win and it will be around 14 points so this makes it equally desirable to place money on each side of the line. So one can surmise which team is the favorite based on these Vegas numbers which are usually very good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearvision Posted December 19, 2009 Share Posted December 19, 2009 This argument comes up everytime. Vegas is placing the line at a place to even out the betting that is true but there is also one team favored over the other SMS at -2 means they are favored by two. Lines are based on some secret statistical analysis/vodoo. If the Colts are favored by -14 v. the Rams that means they think the Colts will win and it will be around 14 points so this makes it equally desirable to place money on each side of the line. So one can surmise which team is the favorite based on these Vegas numbers which are usually very good. Sure. They have to have a starting place, but the line is not designed to pick winners, and based on your post, I think you know that. In reality, when it comes to regional colege basketball like this game, Vegas isn't that great. Heck, they aren't even that good at the Super Bowl, let alone games like this. You can make a lot of money in non-BCS college basketball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheA_Bomb Posted December 19, 2009 Share Posted December 19, 2009 Sure. They have to have a starting place, but the line is not designed to pick winners, and based on your post, I think you know that. In reality, when it comes to regional colege basketball like this game, Vegas isn't that great. Heck, they aren't even that good at the Super Bowl, let alone games like this. You can make a lot of money in non-BCS college basketball. Whatever dude. So when TCU was favored by -44 1/2 over UNM a few weeks ago Vegas was not picking TCU to be the winner at all. Head on out to Vegas and try to make a lot of money in non-BCS basketball and let us know how that goes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearvision Posted December 19, 2009 Share Posted December 19, 2009 Whatever dude. So when TCU was favored by -44 1/2 over UNM a few weeks ago Vegas was not picking TCU to be the winner at all. Head on out to Vegas and try to make a lot of money in non-BCS basketball and let us know how that goes. I'm noticing I'm not very welcomed here...of course they're thinking they're going to win, but that's still not the point of a line. The point is to have 50/50 betting if possible, that's why lines move. I don't gamble my friend... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawk Posted December 19, 2009 Share Posted December 19, 2009 I'm noticing I'm not very welcomed here... Since you guys are so welcoming on your board. That's not calling the kettle black... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearvision Posted December 19, 2009 Share Posted December 19, 2009 Since you guys are so welcoming on your board. That's not calling the kettle black... I try to act a certain way on an opposing team's board. It's your board after all. Perhaps I'm failing in my quest... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted December 19, 2009 Share Posted December 19, 2009 I try to act a certain way on an opposing team's board. It's your board after all. Perhaps I'm failing in my quest...You been fine. Just some fun back and fourth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MSUDuo Posted December 19, 2009 Share Posted December 19, 2009 Since you guys are so welcoming on your board. That's not calling the kettle black... Your SLUDrew kid came over and started with excuses. There is a difference. At least some of us tried to start civil conversations where your fans started with junk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted December 19, 2009 Share Posted December 19, 2009 Bills by five in a very ugly game where we force a very slow pace. 55-50. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted December 19, 2009 Share Posted December 19, 2009 Your SLUDrew kid came over and started with excuses. There is a difference. At least some of us tried to start civil conversations where your fans started with junkComing from a fan of a program that produced basketballcountry makes your post priceless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted December 19, 2009 Share Posted December 19, 2009 I'm noticing I'm not very welcomed here...of course they're thinking they're going to win, but that's still not the point of a line. The point is to have 50/50 betting if possible, that's why lines move. I don't gamble my friend... Your fine in my book but I agree with Abomb on this issue. There are lots of ways people can think about who is truly favored to win a game and by how much: 1) trust some computer program based on about 10 games of data. MSU is a 2 point favorite in that method before adjusting for the KM injury. 2) trust the "Vegas method" which is based on as you say trying to get a 50/50 betting pattern. It therefore stands to reason that if half the people in the world think after the KM injury that MSU is a 1 point favorite than that is a pretty good guess of who will win the game and by how much. 3) Understand that Vegas is not unwilling to take a bet if they think the odds are in their favor. The people in Vegas are pretty smart and if they aren't afraid to marginally tweak a line to encourage more betting on one side if they think that side will lose. Fact is, even after the KM injury, Vegas thinks more of the Bills chances than the computer does. I tend to believe Vegas more on this one and think I'll be hi-fiving my way out of the Chaifetz around 9:10 tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feartheq Posted December 20, 2009 Share Posted December 20, 2009 Bears 80 Bills 63 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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