The Wiz

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  1. Won't be pretty..... SLU.................................................................VCU D-.....................................overall......................A- ..........................................OFF........................... F-......................................PPG........................B- F / D+ / D-........................Slash........................A- / C+ / B- F+....................................Off Reb.....................C C-......................................TOs.........................C- ...........................................DEF........................... C+.....................................PPG.........................A- D / D-.................................Slash.......................B+ / B- C-.......................................Def Reb...................B+ F+......................................Opp TOs...................B+ Trending up....Def PPG & Def Reb Trending down....3 pt shooting I have VCU as a Dancing team...However they are not a lock...for that matter no one in the A-10 is a lock. A loss here or there and they could be out. There scorers are Lewis, Tillman and Cox. Lewis leading in pts, 3pt%, and assts. Tillman leading in Reb and FG% Cox leading in blks. Lots of depth on this team. I will leave it to Old Guy and BillsBeliever to go over the stats and figure a way for us to win...I can't see it ..This looks like the return of Dayton to me. Bottomline.....We need to have another hot shooting night like we did against GM to have a chance...otherwise it is ...Tick...tick ...tick ...17 days
  2. This was a poor showing even for a D- team....If you look at the slash line listed above in the OP you will see an unspectacular F / C- / D-...today we came in at 37.5 / 26.7 / 54.5 which translates into ....F- / F- / F- Enough said. I wish I could tell you things will be better...but the next one at VCU will be nasty (prepare for a troll attack).... Next projected win....November Tick...tick...tick...3 weeks
  3. We are not over rated....We are D-....we are what we are.
  4. Good point that 2/3 of new guys are here already and adapting and gelling....Definitely an advantage over coming in cold. But practicing particularly as the "other" team (the team we are playing next) is not the same as real game experience. . In practice you get unlimited minutes. You can only truly adapt and gel when you are in a real game that counts with a clock running and paying fans in the stands. In a tie game with 7 seconds left ...do you take the shot or pass it ...and if you pass it ...pass it to who and where will they be....and do you remember the play in this situation etc etc....Real game time experience ...real adapting and gelling....It takes time spent with your current teammates to get there ... I think we have the right pieces to the puzzle...it just will take some time to put it together. If you don't have the right pieces you can never put the puzzle together.
  5. What does it have to do with next year?....To summarize what broy said....half of next year's team will be made up of this year's team. Even if we adapt and gel next year and stay injury free we still have the dilution of talent ..new mixed with old that will dilute us down a bit.. Not saying we will be bad next year...just that is not probable to go from bad to great...it is possible to go from bad to pretty good.
  6. As I said in the original post for the Bills to reach B- (the max) all of those things need to go right and do so by the 8th game since you are pretty much set by then.. If we got to B- by game 8 we would then need to improve to B by the start of conference play to have a chance to finish at B+ at the end of the season. A lot of ifs to get to the NIT. Bottomline ..Most probable at this point if things work out...1/3 chance of going to CBI...which if you think about it is pretty amazing considering we are D- now and the 12th worst offense in the nation lagging behind Chicago St (3-21) I don't think you realize how deep a hole we are in. That's why every win at this point is a miracle.
  7. A- and above = Dancing B+ plus a winning record = NIT B = 3/4 go to NIT...the rest of the Bs go to CBI B- = about a 1/3 go to CBI ...the rest go home These aren't exact because there is still some subjectivity left in the process but they are pretty close. The other factor that affects things are conference tourney upsets...if you have a lot of those you can push some deserving teams out. If all the conference winners win their tourneys you could have a B+ sneak in. So not much chance of post season next year. After this season is over , we will have a final grade and a little more info to project for next year. We will know where we stand by the 1st week of Dec...the 8th game. Where ever we stand ...we won't be looking up at everybody.
  8. This post was triggered by the NC St. thread and how it translates to the Bills next year. Being competitive is a relative term in NCAA basketball. ....Depends on what league you are in. In the case of NC St (14-13...3-11) they are a bottomfeeder. They are a bottomfeeder because they are in the ACC an A+ conference. They grade out at B....In the A-10 they would be about the same as St.B fighting for a 4-6th spot. and having a decent year. Same goes for TX and OK in the B12 another A+ conference. TX (10-16...4-9) and OK (9-16 ...3-10). Both these teams are a B+ and would be fighting for a 3-5 spot in the A-10. The point is that you have to be within 2 steps of conference grade to be competitive.. These teams are not and are having disastrous years. Even the miracle worker Shaka can't seem to work his magic. The problem is these good teams are always going up against Sweet 16 competition.....B12 Ks , WV , Bay... and ...ACC ...NC , Duke, Lou....In both leagues there are no bad teams. The next coaches will be pretty much doomed to the same fate. Here is what the competitive chart looks like. ... Within 2 steps of the league grade.(eg B+ vs B- )......lightly competitive...you can beat the majority of the lower part of the league...Battle the upper part .win a game or 2 from the upper Within 1 step of the league ( eg B vs B- )....fairly competitive....Win almost all the lower teams...battle the upper teams ..win a few upper Team = league.....Competitive....beat everybody in the lower half...Battle for the league top spots but fall short Exceed league average....Conf winners come from here...if there is only 1 exceed ...that's your winner...if more than one the ...the best grade will take the conference. In the case of the Bills we are not steps away... we are over 2 letter grades away ( B vs D- ) Yet we have 4 conference wins...a tip o' the cap to Ford and the team for an outstanding effort. This chart shows how amazing it is to win one much less 4 games. So what does this mean for next year? History has shown , at least on my system, that when you have a complete turn over ie 5 or more players.. your maximum improvement is 2 full letter grades. Let me emphasize, this is not a guarantee but a best case scenario. I know there are some here on the board who think we are going to the FF next year...it is possible but not probable. Realistically, we will probably finish this year at D-. ...which means we have a chance to be at B- next year ...which means we could be Fairly competitive on the above chart. ...This assumes we will finish at D- this year (most likely) and that the A-10 stays at B ( it has averaged B+ over the years) Why can't we do better than B- next year with all the great players? There are a lot of variables that have to fall into place for us to exceed the max and become an outlier. New players...Have to gel as a team....learn the Ford system...adjust to the size and up tempo of the college game...adapt to school life... Other variables...injuries...playing time / expectations.....the hype is over done (not everyone is going to the NBA)...A-10 gets better and finally luck There are other factors but you get the idea...If we master a lot of the factors we get our 2 letter jump...if we meet them all we exceed and become an outlier and Dance. Bottomline....No matter what happens, things will be a lot better next year....tick...tick...tick...3 weeks
  9. SLU.............................................................................For Offense D-.....................................Overall Grade......................C F-.......................................PPG....................................F+ F / C- / D-..........................Slash..................................F+ / D- / B F+......................................Off Reb...............................F-...4th worst in nation C-.......................................TOs....................................C F+.......................................Opp TOs............................A+...2nd in the nation Defense C........................................PPG...................................B D. /D-..................................Slash.................................F+ / D- D+........................................Def Reb............................D No change on the offense Trending down on defense....PPG and def slash...not a good sign...need to turn this around if we are to win anymore games Can we win this game?....A definite yes. But wait... didn't you see the 9 pt spread ...and how about their overall grade is more than a full letter higher than ours and they just beat RI and their record is better and it is ....and......and.....and.....timeout.. They are us. Offensively not much different...we shoot 3's a little better...they are a better FT team ...overall about the same. Same story on D...about the same... So what's the story?...It all comes down to 1 stat.....opp TOs...they force TOs...one guy alone Chartouny has 3-4 steals per game. That 1 stat is the reason for their full letter grade higher...It is the answer to all those questions above....the 9 pt spread is about TOs. In terms of things to watch...not much ...no real stars or dominant players (especially if we play D ) Hawkins is their main scorer. One of their starting forwards is questionable...Slanina..missed the last 2 games ...wrist. If he doesn't play Sengfelder their 2nd leading scorer will try to make up some of the difference. Bottom line....Protect the ball...don't get into FT battle with them....if we are down by a few with the clock running down and we have to foul, we will lose..... The fact they do little Off Reb is a plus for us. Once again, it will take a full 40 min of effort to beat them...no dead zones ( basket free for 6+ min).. BTW....Did I mention....protect the ball...If our TO differential is zero or better...we win....this assumes we have just an average shooting night. Go Bills
  10. +1....The numbers changed very little overall (for us or Dayton). That's because things played out pretty much the way they were supposed to Could Dayton have run the score up more? Maybe, but the computer diminishes those effects past a 20 pt spread. Bottomline...we were over matched....an A- team (Dayton) is not the same as a B- team (UMass or GM) Too much to overcome. If we can improve to at least B- next year we won't be over matched by any team.
  11. This what happens when an A- team plays a D- team....no surprise here Well is there anything positive to report in this game ? Yes ...we won the 2nd half and scored nearly 3 times as many points as the first half. Anything else? Yes ...one more thing...This is the most points we have scored against Dayton in 3 years...a 72-67 loss on 3/ 5 /14...we beat Dayton earlier that year ...again scoring 67 pts.....67-59 Jan 2014..our last win against Dayton. We didn't lose this game...Dayton beat us...slashline 57/50 / 80 well above their numbers...had Dayton had a Dayton game ...it would have looked like this....3 extra 3's = 9pts + 2 extra 2's =4 pts + 4 extra FTM = 4pts = 17 pts.....the spread .... take away the 4 extra TOs the Bills had over Dayton's 11 and that's 8pts more for a 3 pt Billiken win. Bottomline....Bills overmatched......A- (Tourney team) vs D- team. "Burn the tape........Let's move on" T. Ford 2/14/17....Valentines Day Massacre...No love lost on this game
  12. LaS will be favored to win when we play them... BUT.... B- teams = G Mason ( 2 wins) = UMass (win) = LaS
  13. To win those 3 games get out your deck of cards again and shuffle. . I will give you a chance because the Bills are trending....Deuces are wild...Deal out 5 cards...if you get a straight....then the Bills win those 3 games.
  14. Well the long ambiguous answer is it depends on what the other 349 teams do as everything is interdependent. The short answer is ...yes because it would be a major upset. Using the trend model where everything goes the Bills way the spread narrows to 7 which is still a lot for things trending your way. Using the deck of cards ....shuffle and deal out 5 cards .... If you get 2 pair ....the Bills win.
  15. But I haven't separated myself from the numbers and probabilities.....Trending model is a subset of the main model.