The Wiz

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    The Wizard of Odds

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  1. UCD = C- = Ford or Duq Ill St = B+ = a notch below Day, RI and VCU = NIT
  2. The question is..... Is this guy better than Neufeld?....If the answer is yes then this was a good pickup....plus only a 1 year commitment vs 2 more on Neufeld
  3. Houston = A- About the same as VCU
  4. Big East = A A-10 = B Prov = B+ ..... a 4th place finish in the A-10
  5. Belmont ....B Hou Bap.....D Det.............D- Seattle.......D- So it looks like we should have an easy game and a tough one (Belmont)
  6. These teams aren't Butler, but neither are they cream puffs. St. Peters finished with a 23-13 record and an overall rating of B-. Had they played in the A-10 they would have finished 5th.... And Vermont finished at 28-6 with a grade of B+...good enough to receive an at large bid had they not received the auto bid.to the tourney. Had Vermont been in the A-10 they would have finished 4th. They had the longest winning streak in Div 1 this season (21 games) before Purdue beat them in the tourney. And the Boilermakers struggled against them We just came off of a D rated season. These 2 teams are probable thinking ...adding the Billikens doesn't help our schedule. I will say this ....if we can get to the level of a Vermont next year...I will be pleased.
  7. You sly dog. I know what you did there in the title topic. You tipped the Board of as to who the Grad Transfer is that will be coming to SLU. It is Finnegan from Wake...and I'll bet your source was JJ. Thanks for the update....you are a true insider.
  8. There have been some posts on this thread stating that Santos is "old" or has "peaked". According to basketball stats the average age for a basketball player to peak is currently 26 Decades ago it was around 25 but with better conditioning and medical care the age has been extended to 26. In an ideal world players would start their college career at age 22 and peak in their senior year. Listed below are some NBA players and the age they peaked. Dennis Rodman....30 Dominique Wilikins...31 Jon Barry...32 Marcus Camby...34 Robert Parrish...35 Steve Nash...33 There are many others. The point is that even if 26 is the peak many players go well past that and peak later on. Which bring us to a couple of key points on Santos.... 1. You can't draw any major conclusions from his years at USF. The Bulls were worse than we were this year .That is no small feat. We finished the year with a grade of D for the season in a B rated conference. USF was a D- team in a B+ conference. The Bulls were a team that was in disarray...they have lost a bunch of players (currently have 7 left) . We all remember this very clearly in the past few years from our own experience. In this environment , it is hard to grow or evaluate a player's talent. 2. Based on age and peaking stats we are getting Santos at the right time. Will he be a great player? Maybe...if the staff can work their magic and he can meld into the team it could happen. The AAC is comparable to the A-10. If he doesn't become a star he is an upgrade from who ever has left. Bottom line...Probably too early to tell how he will fit in because there are still at least 2 more pieces of the puzzle to fill in. ..He is an upgrade and that is a good thing.
  9. I liked Zeke as a player. Showed good energy and potential. I wouldn't put a lot of stock in negative comments made here. The vast majority of people on the board are both supporters of the program and the players. The negative posters get more play time now because it is the off season. I don't think their comments are representative of the overall makeup of the board. I think most here liked and supported Zeke. As for Tenn Tech...they are a mirror of SLU at this time....Similar records... TT finished 10-20....Both SLU and TT finished with a grade of D....Had TT and the Bills played on a neutral site at the end of the season....the game would have been even. As you can see in the Bills case ...past grade performance is no indication of future grades...things can change quickly in college BB. The main thing in choosing a college is that you find a good match....between the player and the school and the player and the basketball program. It looks like at this point a match was found with TT and Zeke. As for Zeke's potential... I think it looks promising. His current slash line is 37/ 39/ 77...nice shooting numbers. To be a ranked player in FTs and 3pt shooting ....you need to play in 75% of the games and make 2.5 shots(FTs and/or 3pt) / game. Zeke is currently at 1.1FTM and 0 .9 3PMade. If he can boost either of those stats to 2.5 made and hold on to his current slash line he could be a top 100 player in either or both of those categories. Bottom line...he has good potential. I also like that his TO ratio is less than 1/game...takes care of the ball....something the Bills needed. I wish Zeke the best and hope he is able to reach that potential once he starts to play again.
  10. No changes to the Final report card... Again, the top 3 made it to the Dance as predicted in the 1st report card (game 8) All 14 teams stayed within 2 notches of their original grade (which is normal) and 9 of the 14 moved only 1 notch from beginning to end. In my system ,.... you are what you are by the 8th game. So what does this mean for next year? I read with interest the early prediction threads on the board. To me it is folly to try and predict anything for next year....no schedule...no final roster etc etc. What I can tell you is that teams that make wholesale changes (5+ players...particularly to the starting lineup) have an upside of 2 letter grades...in this case a grade of B. So what does a B team look like in the A-10? This year they looked like Richmond, St. B and Dav.. In the A-10 this usually means a finish of 8 to 13 wins in conference ( most probable 11 wins) and an overall finish of 17-22 wins ( most probable 20 wins) and a finish of 4-6th place. Now before some of you run off half cocked saying " The Wiz said 22 wins and...." .........The key to the above statements is the word "upside". This means maximum potential....best case scenario....everything goes right.....Everyone shows up, the team gels, new players adjust to college basketball and to school and to Ford's system...injuries need to be at a minimum and last but not least we need a bit of luck. If all that happens , we can finish at a B. Can we finish better than a B ...it's possible but not likely. One thing that will not change will be that...."It's not easy being a Bills fan". But after watching the new players in practice and watching Ford get the max out of the players from this year's team , I can tell you things will be better next year. Will we make grade B? Won't know till around Dec 1 ( game 8) But I can tell you now , we will be better than D. Yes, it is not easy being a Bills fan but next year will be easier. Tick...tick...tick...7 months to a new beginning.
  11. I was going to wait till after the Tourney to do this but decided to do it now because it is this point in time that the tournaments make their decisions. I will make any adjustments to this card after the Final Four. Team.........................First report card ( game 8)......................Mid term ( Start of A-10 play).....................Final Day....................................A-..................................................................A-..................................................A- RI.......................................A-..................................................................A...................................................A- VCU...................................A-..................................................................B+.................................................A- Dav....................................B+.................................................................B+.................................................B St. B...................................B+.................................................................B..................................................B LaS....................................B...................................................................B-.................................................C+ UMass.................................B-.................................................................B-.................................................C+ St. J.....................................B-................................................................B...................................................C+ Rich.....................................C+..............................................................B-...................................................B Ford.....................................C................................................................C-...................................................C- GM.......................................C.................................................................B-...................................................B- GW.......................................C.................................................................B-...................................................B- Duq.......................................C-...............................................................C-....................................................C- The Bills................................F+................................................................D-...................................................D A few notes....normal moves are..... 2 notches between 1st card and Mid...ie.. C to B- and 1 notch between Mid and Final...ie .. B- to C+. Of the 28 possible moves over the last 2 report cards 27 (96%) fell within the normal range. Only St. J who was decimated by injuries was outside the range. ...2 notches down from B to C+ from the Mid to Final card. And even then they only moved 1 notch from beginning to end.. Rich and The Bills were the only 2 teams to show improvement on both of the last 2 cards....usually a sign of good coaching and gelling. Another note....A- and above teams should be headed to the Dance ....not only did that work out at the end but it showed up on the 1st card too.. And while the model is meant to be predictive of the Dance it can also be used as a guide for the other 2 tourneys. Usually B+ indicates NIT ( (No B+s this year)...the remainder...Bs are usually fill-ins for the NIT and CBF. I was surprised that St. B and Dav didn't get bids. I thought St. B had a chance for NIT or CBI and Dav maybe a CBI. These are more unpredictable because there is an extra element. Besides getting the offer , a team has to accept it. With the Big Dance ...you get an offer ...you take it. With the other 2...not so much. In the end, it can cost a team more than it can make. Finally, outside the A-10, I didn't see many surprises. I did not have Ill St going to the Dance (NIT with a B+) and I had Marq (A) Dancing.. I had Illinois ( B+ ) going to the NIT. The only real surprise was Syr (A- ) not making the Dance.. As for the other 2 NIT 1st seeders...Cal & Iowa...both B+ ...both in the right place. Again, I will update the Final card after the FF... though I don't think there will be a lot of changes.
  12. I had mentioned in a thread a couple of weeks ago that the only way the A-10 could have 3 teams Dancing is if RI played VCU in the Championship game. Going into the A-10 tournament I had VCU and RI as the last 4 in. . Dayton making the final game or either of the other 2 dropping out before the final game means the A-10 would have had 2 Dancing Now if we go back to Dec 7, 2016 (1st report card)...I was showing Dayton A and VCU & RI at A-...all 3 dancing.....their grades now are all 3 at A-....Of course any or all could still move up if they start winning
  13. OG...you got the first part right with the 3 grades.....but next year's max is based on this year's full season ....D..... which makes next year's max B
  14. Sorry I corrected that last line.........it should read....with the final win over Duq The meaning is still the same...we played a team at the end of the season( Duq) that correlated to our conf only schedule grade of C- and we played them even.....The B- trending line was valid but the league grade of C- takes precedence because it is a larger sample size.than the 14 game trending model.
  15. Well the easy analysis...where the change happened....Jan 25 (UMass) to the end ...we played at a B- level. But if we just do the A-10....removing NCAT from the middle of league play... we come in at C-...Low point in the season was right before the UMass game when we bottomed at F+......C- also correlates with the final loss to Duq ...a C- team in what turned out to be an even game.