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The Wiz

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About The Wiz

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    The Wizard of Odds

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  1. Top 144

    A great call NYB.....Even if it was a guess...to predict the exact prediction of the predictor is an amazing thing. You not only have the randomness of the team's rank but the randomness of the prognosticator. Now what would be even more amazing is to predict the Bills ranking at the end of the season.
  2. First Look

    I had a chance to look at some of the changes for the Fetz this year. First, there is the upgrade to the locker rooms / lounges. Work is underway now ...to be completed by the start of the season....Impressive, first rate facilities. Should be a great recruiting tool. For the fans, ....new LED scoreboards...bigger, brighter, clearer......on the test run they were only running ads and PSA's but you can see this is a major improvement over the previous boards. Should be a good year on and off the court.
  3. A-10 League grades this Century

    There are a lot of factors which figure into the League grades...Coaching changes, loss or addition of great players etc...Here is how it looks with the recent changes.... 11-12 ...The "Old" conference....including X and Temple..............B+ 12-13.....Added VCU and Butler....................................................B+ 13-14......Subtract Temple and X and But......................................A- 14-15......Add Davidson and Mason...............................................B+ 15-16..............................................................................................B+ 16-17...............................................................................................B So the interesting year is 13-14....not only were the Bills strong...the whole league was strong from top to bottom....even the 2 cellar dwellers Fordham(10-21) and Duq (13-17) finished with a C- and C+. One could argue that with the removal of the 3 "good" teams the league actually improved (B+ to A- ) but as I mentioned above there are other factors. I will say that from the 2014 peak, the league has been trending down (A- to B )....changes usually take a few years to sink in. I think this year will be an important one for the league to see if they can reverse the trend. Hopefully the Bills will be doing their part. As for Mo Valley the loss of WSU will hurt....Anytime you lose an A+ team the numbers will weaken...Valpo coming in as a B may soften the blow a little.
  4. A-10 League grades this Century

    I will start the Mo Val grades from when the Bills entered the A-10... 05-06....A- 06-07.....A- 07-08.....B+ 08-09......B- 09-10......B 10-11.......B- 11-12.......B 12-13.....B 13-14......B 14-15......B 15-16......B- 16-17......B- As you will notice ...except for the first 3 years...the A-10 has outperformed.
  5. I thought with all the talk about team rankings and grades , it would be interesting to take a look at the A-10 league grades.over the years as these league grades can affect a team's ranking and grade.. Generally these don't move much year to year....a 1 notch move is generally a big move....If it is more than that it is usually the result of a league adding or losing teams. Also, if a league's numbers hold steady and the other leagues improve or worsen...this too can affect the league grade. I start in 2000 (pre-Billiken) to give some context. Pre-Billiken 2000-2001......B+ 2001-2002.......B 02-03...............B 03-04................B 04-05.................C+ Billikens join 05-06.................B+ 06-07..................B- 07-08...................B+ 08-09..,................B 09-10...................B+ 10-11....................B 11-12....................B+ 12-13..................B+ 13-14...................A- 14-15..................B+ 15-16...................B+ 16-17...................B
  6. I believe that was the 2010-11 when they were freshman...the year of "the incident"...finished 11-19...yet they came in at a solid B-...it is not just about the wins The next year 2011-12 it all came together and we soared to 25-8 and an A+
  7. Point of information Ft % grades for 2017 A= 75.4 B= 72.3 C=69.9 D=67.6 F = 64.4 Bills finish at 66.3 = D-...
  8. Falling outside the curve is like rolling an 11 with a pair of dice. You are correct in that if we just talk about the upside (2.5%) ...B+ or better... than we will actually need to roll a 12. I am basically an optimist ..I go into every season thinking the Bills will do well....How else can you be a long time season ticket holder....The numbers side of the equation has always kept me grounded...usually on the down side...but during the Majerus years I actually swept to the upside when I saw an early trend that showed we were going to be an A team and probably go Dancing while many were still predicting doom and gloom...the famous MB73 confrontations. Over the years the board has always been overly optimistic which has led to some letdowns...and thus coining the phrase...it isn't easy being a Bills fan. I do believe if anyone can lead us to outlier land...it would be Ford. It just won't be easy ...even if a lot of things go right.....Everything has to go right. I will tell you this , I watched a number of practices last year and got a chance to see the transfers...the worst transfer was better than anyone we had playing last year...we have a significant upgrade in talent. And no matter how things go we will be a much better team this year. .We may not win every game this year but we will be able to compete in every game. I think last year Ford did more with less...This year he will be able to do more with more. Want to know what is really going to happen? See me at game 8. Go Bills
  9. As I look through this thread, it looks like people got the essence of what I said....The grade of B....2 letter grade improvement ...somewhere around 75-100 ranking...95% probability (2SD).....etc. One key point though needs to be reemphasized...The grade of B is a MAXIMUM outcome ...not the most likely. If everything goes perfectly ...I wont repeat the dozen or so variables that all have to fall into place....we might get a B. Can we do better...It is possible but not probable. There is roughly about a 5% chance to do better ...Those are not great odds. It is the equivalent of coming up to a crap table and rolling an 11....Possible but not your most likely outcome. A grade B finish in the A-10 gets you a good chance to go to the NIT....Not trying to be a downer here ...just trying to be "most probable" Remember this is a team that hasn't come close to 500 in 3 years....and essentially a new team that hasn't really played together as a unit in real games. Can we go to the Dance this year...Roll an 11 on 1 try and the answer could be yes. "It is very certain that when it is not in our power to determine what is true, we ought to act according to what is most probable. ........Rene Descartes...1636
  10. Top 144

    Good job....You are correct....I had Cal at A Cal was a 4 seed against 13 seed Hawaii...a weaker team from a weaker conference. Cal should have won by at least 5....instead lost by 11...not a great Martin moment.
  11. Top 144

    This will be as of April of 2017.... It changes a bit every year but this will give you the idea. A+....1-17 A.......18-32 A-.......32-51 B+.......52-77 B...........78-103 B-...........104--132 C+...........133-16! C.............162-189 C-............190-216 D+............217-244 D...............245-272 D-..............273-300 F+...............301-317 F..................318-335 F-..................336-351 The difference between teams with the same grade should be statistically insignificant. As you can see it is quite a move to make a full 2 letter jump...even in the middle (C+ to C-) where teams and numbers tend to bunch up..
  12. Top 144

    In analyzing the grading system over the last 15 years, generally a team at C or less doesn't move more than 2 letter grades up (it is slightly more on the downside.) We are talking about 2 standard deviations for teams that move 2 letters or less . Why is this? Because as it is mentioned many times before ...everything has to go right to even move up 2 letters much less "much more"...The usually factors as I mentioned earlier....all players show up....they adjust to the coach and the system...they adjust to school (academically and socially) ..they adjust to the faster, ,bigger, stronger competition...and this all happens starting in the first few games. That is why the max is 2 letter grades on the upside....That is also why it is easier to fall a couple of grades ...You only need a few things to fail for a team to fall apart quickly (see Crews years) Of course the discussion here with Mizzou is silly because as I pointed out in the above post a team that is starting from C+ can NOT improve " much more" than 2 letter grades.. If the Bills can improve 2 or more letter grades it would be an amazing turn around and a tribute to Ford.
  13. Top 144

    +1...You are correct ...I had Mizzou at C+ And you are incorrect....If Mizzou was C+, they will NOT change "much more" than 2 letter grades...2 letter grades is the maximum they can move..... unless you are talking about them going down. The Bills are the ones that have the most upside and are the ones who could surprise and become the outlier. BTW...I haven't been following the board real close lately. Why are we talking about Mizzou?
  14. Top 144

    These grades are from April 2017...the close of the season. People are comparing UCD to SLU ...and so these grades are for comparative purposes.. And what they show is at the close of the season Neufeld went to a better team...in April of 2017. As SLU72 said ...I like to make my forecasts on real data. I will throw out at this point some general trends. When a team makes a whole sale change...i.e. 5+ players ...the max improvement is generally 2 letter grades...so the Bills upside potential could be a grade of B.... Now before somebody goes running off saying that The Wiz has graded the Bills at B for the upcoming season....this is a max grade....if everything goes right...minimal injuries, everybody shows up, everybody adjusts (academically and athletically.) ..then we could finish with a B...which in the A-10 and an average preseason schedule could translate into 17-22 wins...which might mean an NIT. As for the Top 144...we could make it...a grade B might put us around 100....a grade C and we don't make the list. As most prognosticators use a rear view mirror to make their forecasts I would be surprised if we make it on to the list. I guess being from Missouri we will just have to Show them
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