StlCardinal

Exactly. We only gave up an off. rebound on 25% of Butler's possessions last night. If we had that percentage up for the entire season, we'd be the 3rd best defensive rebounding team in the country. For the season, we give up off. rebounds on 27% of our opponents' possessions, which puts us at 26th in the nation--still quite good. Defensive rebounding is not a weakness. It's actually a pretty big strength.

The offense might not have been pretty at times, but the excellent 3 pt and FT shooting made up for it. We actually scored 1.05 points per possesion, which is slightly better than our season average. This coming against the 27th ranked defense in the country according to kenpom, so certainly nothing to be ashamed of. The real problem seemed to be the rebounding and defensive intensity. Too many easy baskets and o-rebound putbacks. We came out in the 2nd half expecting to coast to an easy win, and apparently the tigers thought otherwise. This seems like the sort of thing that fixable, so I'm still plenty optimistic for the conference season.

I couldn't find FT O-rebounding percentages for college, but in the NBA, about 13% of FT result in an O-Reb. As Skip points out, that's probably a little generous still since we're not a good offensive rebounding team to begin with. Using that conservative 13% number, we've conceded 5.3 points over 13 games so far by not attempting to rebound (.13 * 39 live rebounds * 1.05 pts per poss.). Another factor Timmerman doesn't include is the chance for committing a foul while trying to rebound. I don't have the numbers to quantify that, but I think it's reasonable to conclude that the value of having the D set up and not having a chance to commit a foul with our big men is at least a break even with the 5 points we would have gained to date. All in all, it's a lot like the LaRussa pitcher-batting-eighth thing: goes against conventional wisdom, gives us fans something to gripe about, but really doesn't make a big difference in the long run.

Actually, it probably just means we've been pretty unlucky so far this year. Our 50.8% defensive 3 Pt % is dead last in D1 (347th!)--there is no way our opponents will sustain that rate. Pomeroy did some research last year that showed that among two relatively evenly matched teams, 3 Pt % is essentially a lottery. Your defense can control how many 3 pt attempts your opponent takes, but for the ones they do throw up, they've got about a 35% chance of going in in the long run. Here's the full article for the details: http://kenpom.com/bl...ne_is_a_lottery (warning: there's math involved) In case you're wondering, the Bills are preventing 3 pt attempts even better than last year. We've allowed 3 pt shots on only 20% of possessions (3rd lowest in D1). last year, it was 25% (9th in D1). So it's not like we're leaving opponents open for tons of 3s--they've just happened to make a better percentage of them this year. I suspect we'll start seeing some nights where opponents shoot 20% from 3, and we'll all be talking about how stifling our defense was.

I did a quick check on the Butler message board...it looks like their fans are almost unanimously in favor of going to the A-10. They like the multiple bids that are possible as well as the increased exposure from playing in the east coast (sound familiar?). The only hangup for them is losing their games in the Chicago market, since they apparently recruit a lot there. Let's get them in the fold, and get them in our pod with X and Dayton!

And just like that, we now are 2-2 against RPI top 50. X moved up to 48 with that win. Shows how silly arbitrary cutoffs are when evaluating a team.

Roy is right--our offense is not mediocre. Because we play at a slow tempo, the point totals don't often get into the 80s, but that doesn't mean the offense is bad. According to Pomeroy, our offensive efficiency is 39th in the nation...not quite as stellar as our 10th ranked defense, but still pretty darn good. It's all about efficiency. We'll never have gaudy point totals or individual stats, but it's only because we purposely limit the possessions in each game.

Please?

Great info, as usual, kwyjibo. Keep it coming!

I agree with you guys—this is a fun team to watch, especially knowing that this is just the beginning—but does anyone else get that sinking feeling that we are in for a letdown? All this talk of running the table and winning the conference tourney, it seems too good to be true. The team has proven that they are certainly capable of such a run, but I have been conditioned by the past decade of Billiken basketball to expect a maddening loss whenever it seems like we on the verge of a breakthrough. Is this team really good enough to avoid such a letdown? I guess we’ll find out in the next couple of weeks. Regardless, it’s a great time to be a Billikens fan!

Will anyone be heading over to Sportzone for the game tonight? I'll be there with SLUradioboy and Billikens_fanatic, and it would be great to get a group of fellow Bills fans there to cheer them on to victory!

If you're using Internet Explorer, try going to Tools>Internet Options. Under the General tab, click on the "Colors..." button, and you will be able to set the colors used for visited and unvisited links. Make sure that those colors are different, whatever you choose. If you're using Firefox (which I highly recommend!), go to Tools>Options, and there is a "Fonts and Colors" button under the General tab as well, which allows you to adjust the same thing. This might not be the problem, but it's worth checking. Let me know if this does the trick.

I saw you guys over there, but I was sitting directly across from you, also up in the rafters. I would have joined you but I didn't want to ditch the friends that I came with. It was kind of fun being the lone voice for the Billikens over on the side I was on. Luckily, I don’t think we were sitting amongst the most passionate Xavier fans, so I didn't have to worry about any confrontations (not that I was saying anything bad about them…just supporting our guys).

...was all made worthwhile by Kevin Lisch's 3-pointer with 56 ticks left on the clock. The Xavier fans were getting really loud after a couple free throws cut the lead to 2 points, but you would have been able to hear a pin drop in the Cintas Center after Kevin drained that shot, were it not for the Blue Crew folks and me going crazy (I was the only person in my section that was making noise for the Billikens). I've never been so happy to get so many nasty looks from total strangers. I took a perverse pleasure in watching all the dejected looks on the people's faces as they filed out of the arena. I almost started to feel bad for them, but then I remembered how many times I've had to cope with a maddening loss from our Billikens. It's always nice when we can return the favor. All things considered, I'd say it was worth the 12 hours in the car to see the exciting victory. Who needs sleep, anyway?

I believe the NCAA does not reveal the formula used for the "official" RPI that is used by the selection committee. The various websites with RPI rankings are only the author's best guess at what the RPI formula actually is. They usually end up being pretty acurate when everything is said and done at the end of the year. As a casual RPI watcher, my personal preference is Ken Pomeroy's site. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure that's how it works.

Actually, there was a pretty active thread over there...check out: http://www.basketballboards.net/forum/show...ad.php?t=232562

I agree with you on Earl--I love listening to him, and his knowledge of hoops, especially the local scene is unmatched. Wiley, on the other hand, rarely has any insight and doesn't have a very smooth delivery on the air. He usually ends up repeating whatever Frank just said. It's just about unbearable to listen to those two together. Frank does a great job reporting and anchoring a sportscast, but just doesn't quite have what it takes to do play-by-play.

The refs may have missed those calls, but it's still not why we lost. On the goaltending no-call, we got the ball back and made a 3 (Polk, I believe) 5 or 10 seconds later, so we were actually better off not getting the call. On the Tommie travel call, he might not have traveled, but the shot he through up went straight into the hands of a GW player, so if they don't call it, GW has the ball anyway. I'm not sold that it should have been a foul called. Tommie should have just tried to back it out if he didn't have full control of his body. I'm normally right there with you criticizing the refs if they influence the outcome unfairly, but I just can't pin this loss on the zebras.

Dewey said: "everyone on here is harping on how much better we will be against zones when Drejaj gets back....no one is close to his 3 pt stats this year" If by some rare chance they are, in fact, reading their opponent's fan message boards, they see that Drejaj might be back, and they decide to change their gameplan and not zone us because of Drejaj, I would be excstatic. If they want to key in our our shooter(s), then that just means more room for Ian to breath. I'll take that any day. Besides, even if they are surprised by Drejaj, as soon as he makes one or two 3's, it's not like it would be that tough to adjust and say "hey, maybe we should get a hand in his face."

Copy and pasted from my post below: "I swung by West Pine to check out practice today, and I was encouraged to see AD out of his cast and running and shooting. He didn't participate in the drills with the rest of the team, but was running up and down the sideline. He was also working with the trainer doing some cutting and changing directions. He wasn't showing visible signs of pain, although he was probably going at 60-70% of his normal ability. With as tough as he is, I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see him play against GW." This is nothing official, just my observations.

who he would be rooting for? I know this was a big area of debate, but I don't remember ever seeing the final verdict. Thanks for the scouting report, btw.

I swung by West Pine to check out practice today, and I was encouraged to see AD out of his cast and running and shooting. He didn't participate in the drills with the rest of the team, but was running up and down the sideline. He was also working with the trainer doing some cutting and changing directions. He wasn't showing visible signs of pain, although he was probably going at 60-70% of his normal ability. With as tough as he is, I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see him play against GW. I just hope he doesn't rush things--we need him for the rest of the year! A side note...Kramer played in some of the drills when they needed an extra man, and more than held his own. It's no wonder he's averaging 20 a game for his team, considering he gets to practice against bigger, stronger D-1 players in his spare time. We need to get this kid signed up!

Ian executed to perfection one of the most beautiful plays in basketball last night. I think it was in the second half, he gets the ball in the high post, with the rest of our team all hovering outside the three-point line. EI's defense immediately collapses on Ian, but he reacted quickly and threw a no-look pass that hits the cutting TL perfectly in stride, giving him the easy two-handed jam. I love watching a big man who can pass! We should see this all year long whenever they try to double Ian in the post. He needs to touch the ball every time we set up our half-court offense.

nm

I believe he was referring to Tommie Liddell and Kevin Lisch.